Ecosystems worldwide are rapidly changing.  In the Mediterranean Sea, one of the world’s fastest-warming marine regions, two major drivers are the spread of invasive alien species (IAS) and changing environmental conditions. Concurrently, warming conditions can facilitate IAS establishment. The focus of this study is to understand the dynamics between the description of invasions and research effort, and the relationship with climate change. Using the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus as a case study, this methodology provides a workflow for analyzing invasion descriptions of easily identifiable IAS. This investigation analyzed records along a naturally occurring north to south axis in the Adriatic Sea, the Ionian Sea and Central Mediterranean Sub-basins. A total of 336 research-grade observations of over 58 years were compiled from 106 peer-reviewed publications, including traditional scientific sampling to those incorporating local ecological knowledge (LEK) methodologies. Additionally, satellite-based sea surface temperature records were analyzed to track the spatio-temporal spread of C. sapidus. Segmented linear regression identified phases consistent with classic invasion theory. Generalized Least Squares modeling revealed exponential growth in records, doubling approximately every four years and at a faster rate than increases in research effort. LEK proved especially valuable in data-poor regions, filling gaps in formal monitoring. Sea surface temperature (SST) data revealed significant long-term warming, particularly in winter minima. These trends align with the observed overwinter survival and range expansion of C. sapidus. Episodic marine heatwaves and altered circulation patterns could contribute to enhanced larval dispersal and recruitment success. The results emphasize the need for early detection systems, coordinated monitoring, and adaptive management strategies. Integrating LEK, ecological data, and climate observations offers a scalable model for understanding the invasion dynamics of IAS under climate stress. As Mediterranean ecosystems grow increasingly vulnerable, evidence-based action is critical to mitigating the dual threats of warming seas and biological invasions.