Spatial network dynamics and emergent properties in shallow rocky reef ecosystems
Ecological systems are complex: interactions between organisms and their environment combine in ways that are difficult to represent or predict. Emergent properties, which are not apparent from the analysis of individual components, may arise from the intricate interplay of those components across different spatial and temporal scales. In the context of the PRIN 2020 project “MARECO”, we investigate emergent behaviors in a tri-trophic marine ecosystem conceptualized as a spatial network. The analysis builds on a spatially-implicit model representing the local-scale dynamics of a shallow rocky reef ecosystem in the Tyrrhenian and Ligurian Seas. The spatially-implicit model can reproduce the shift from a healthy ecosystem state, characterized by extensive erect macroalgal cover and high fish biomass, to a degraded state (barren) deprived of erect macroalgae, with high sea urchin abundance and low fish biomass, in response to stressors such as overfishing or climate change. To explore how these processes scale up to the regional scale, we extended the spatially-implicit model to incorporate connectivity through larval dispersal across the spatial domain. This transforms the model into a spatially-explicit metacommunity model, enabling investigation of the system as a network of interconnected patches. While final results are still in development, we expect this approach to uncover how connectivity influences the system’s response to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. In particular, we anticipate identifying emergent properties that are not observable in isolated small-scale systems. Preliminary insights suggest that network structure critically affects the system's response to stress: heterogeneous and modular networks may respond more gradually and adaptively to stress, while highly connected networks may resist change until reaching a tipping point, beyond which they collapse. Understanding these dynamics is crucial from a conservation and management perspective, as it may inform strategies to prevent irreversible regime shifts and the consequent loss of vital ecosystem functions and services.