The Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) fishery of the Punta Allen fishing cooperative, located within the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve (Mexico), is widely recognized as a successful example of community-based and sustainable fisheries management. However, in recent years this fishery has been increasingly challenged by climate-related environmental changes, illegal fishing, and economic pressures, raising concerns about its long-term resilience. This study investigates fishers’ perceptions of climate change, its impacts on lobster fishing, and the future prospects of the fishery and the local community.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted during the summer of 2024 with 39 local fishers to document their experiences and perspectives. Notably, a hurricane struck the area only a few days before the interviews, highlighting the growing exposure of the community to extreme climatic events. The respondents consistently reported a decline in lobster catches over recent years, accompanied by increasing operational challenges, including the need to fish at greater depths, increasing seasonal unpredictability, and more frequent adverse weather conditions. Fishers also identified the degradation of key coastal habitats, particularly seagrass meadows and coral reefs, as an important factor affecting lobster abundance and productivity.

Although the reserve’s cooperative management system is still considered effective in promoting resource conservation, many interviewees expressed growing concern about the cumulative impacts of climate change, illegal fishing, and the sharp decline in lobster market prices following the COVID-19 pandemic. This widespread uncertainty about the future of the fishery has encouraged many community members to diversify their livelihoods by developing complementary activities such as ecotourism, hospitality services, recreational fishing and marine wildlife watching.

Overall, the study highlights the importance of integrating local ecological knowledge into adaptive management strategies and emphasizes the need to strengthen climate resilience, habitat conservation, and socio-economic diversification to ensure the long-term sustainability of one of the Caribbean’s most emblematic small-scale fisheries.