Modelling the ecological drivers of European groundwater copepods’ distributions to guide biodiversity conservation in subterranean aquatic environments
Diana Maria Paola Galassi
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Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica, Sanità Pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, Piazzale Salvatore Tommasi, 1, L'Aquila, AQ - 67100, Italia
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LECA – Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Université Grenoble Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, 2233 Rue de la Piscine, Gières, Grenoble, - 38610, Francia
Anthropogenic global change is reshaping spatial patterns in biodiversity and the ecosystem services it underpins. In this context, ecological modelling techniques are being widely implemented to investigate the distribution of species and the composition of biotic communities across multiple surface ecosystems, anticipating biodiversity shifts and contributing to design effective conservation measures. On the other hand, this approach is still poorly applied to subterranean biotas due to persisting knowledge gaps, including widespread Linnean and Wallacean shortfalls.
Among subterranean environments, groundwater hosts a diverse array of invertebrates, with thousands of species described so far, mostly crustaceans. These organisms play pivotal roles in groundwater-dependent ecosystems, including nutrient recycling and water purification. Nonetheless, they are still poorly considered in international conservation agendas.
Many groundwater crustacean species possess traits such as restricted distribution, slow metabolism, low reproduction rate and limited environmental niche breadth, which make them especially vulnerable to environmental stressors.
We took advantage of the first expert-validated occurrence dataset encompassing all the known species and subspecies of European groundwater-dwelling copepods (Crustacea: Copepoda) to model, at the continent scale and fine spatial resolution (~ 1 km2), the potential distribution of target groundwater copepod species showing different thermal niche breadths and biogeographic histories.
We found that a mix of hydrogeological, climatic and soil-related variables explained most of the observed occurrence patterns and provided the fitted Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with a high predictive performance. The models were then projected across Europe under current conditions and various CMIP6-based global change scenarios to estimate potential range shifts and changes in coverage of suitable regions by European protected areas.
This approach enabled us to assess the likely impacts of global change on groundwater species with varying degree of thermal plasticity. Moreover, the framework serves as a replicable template for leveraging SDMs in prioritizing conservation actions for groundwater communities.
Conservazione e gestione di specie e habitat minacciati
Premio "Ireneo Ferrari" per la migliore comunicazione orale al congresso