Given the current global biodiversity crisis, understanding the dynamics and trends of ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for the sustainable management of social-ecological systems. This is particularly relevant in highly fragile and anthropized systems such as the Venice Lagoon, especially considering the sensitivity of this area to the impacts of climate change.

This work developed a modelling tool that represents the dynamics of twelve ESs in the Venice Lagoon by applying a social-ecological system framework and a systems thinking approach. The conceptual framework is translated into a zero-dimensional model where ESs emerge from the interactions among the state variables, described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The model’s state variables describe the dynamics of habitats and fauna under the effects of climatic and socio-demographic forcings. A comprehensive set of data assessing the state of habitats, fauna, and ESs was considered to parameterise the model.

Model results present long-term trends in simulated ESs and state variables, providing an overview of the feedback network within the lagoon socio-ecological system. Simulation results show a marked long-term decrease in lifecycle maintenance and fishing activities ESs, linked to the negative trends of intertidal habitats and fauna. A sensitivity test of the model to the internal parameters is presented to evaluate structural stability and identify possible leverage points. This test highlighted the relevance of the management of tourism and MOSE in shaping the future trajectory of the lagoon social-ecological system. Based on the comparison with historical data, we conclude that the model can simulate with a satisfactory degree of approximation the behaviour of the lagoon system, and we discuss potential further developments and applications.