Is Lassa virus knocking on Europe's ports? A One Health data-driven model of introduction and community spillover risk across maritime hubs

Davide Bogani
1*
Fabio Restuccia
2
Lorenzo Mari
1*
Renato Casagrandi
1*
1
Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Via Giuseppe Ponzio, 34, Milano, MI - 20133, Italia
2
, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, Milano, MI - 20133, Italia

Seaports have long represented - and still represent - critical entry points for rodents into new regions worldwide, through transport via the high volume of ships and vessels. Given their role in the circulation of a wide range of zoonotic pathogens, the current distribution of different viruses reflects rodent dispersal events and their interactions with novel communities. Among rodent-borne diseases, Lassa virus (LASV) is a major global health concern and a WHO Blueprint priority. Recent evidence suggests that LASV transmission may involve multiple potential hosts beyond its primary reservoir Mastomys natalensis, including cosmopolitan species like Mus musculus and Rattus rattus. This increases the likelihood of LASV geographic expansion if infected rodents are introduced into new areas through maritime transport. Here, we innovatively evaluate the risk that rodents potentially carrying LASV, or a LASV-like Disease X, may be inadvertently carried from source countries in West Africa to major non-African (e.g. European) commercial ports, from which they could transmit the pathogen to competent species and establish endemic conditions. To this end, we developed an integrated framework linking shipping importation fluxes with the ecological and anthropogenic conditions surrounding destination ports, allowing us to proxy the likelihood of interaction and spillover from imported infectious rodents to the European mammal communities identified as potential alternative hosts by a recently published phylogenetic association model. Our results, based on fine-scale modelling of habitat suitability and potential human exposure, map the LASV introduction risk around major European arrival ports, identifying the hubs most likely to become the virus’ entrance door into Europe. This framework may thus provide decision-makers with a tool to support preparedness, inform preventive bio-surveillance and implement rapid containment policies.

Ecologia delle invasioni biologiche: dinamiche, impatti e prospettive di gestione
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