FAIR PAs: a Framework for Assessing Invasive alien plant Risks in Italian Protected Areas
This project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Research under NextGeneration EU and PON-AIM 2014-2020 DM1062, aims to design an integrated framework for assessing the invasive alien plant risks in Italian protected areas (PAs). The framework supports conservation efforts and prioritizes vulnerable habitats by evaluating species’ likelihood of introduction, establishment potential, and impacts on biodiversity and improve prioritization of most species. The species’ likelihood of introduction is estimated based on occurrence density within PAs, buffer zones, and broader Italian and European (e.g., Mediterranean) regions. For species not yet present in Italy, their potential introduction pathways are analyzed. Establishment potential is determined by evaluating habitat suitability as a proxy of the likelihood of persistence within PAs, buffer zones, and the broader Italy. Through species distribution models, we spatially express the likelihood of alien plants establishment. We consider the suitability of alien plants in each habitat in relation to their conservation value as an indicator of potential impact on biodiversity. Such impacts are quantified within PAs, buffer zones, and the broader Italian landscape. Habitat susceptibility to be invaded and biodiversity value assignment are aided by expert knowledge. This structured approach provides a comprehensive framework for quantifying invasion risk and will help prioritize the most threatened habitats in PAs based on the specific interactions between the PAs and the threat posed by each invasive alien plant. The assessment integrates expert knowledge, current and projected climatic suitability, and an ecosystem vulnerability indicator derived from habitat and species diversity data.