FAIR PAs: a Framework for Assessing Invasive alien plant Risks in Italian Protected Areas

Vanessa Lozano
1,2*
Diego Maria Albani
1
Luciano Bani
3
Elena Barni
2,4
Daniela Bouvet
2,4
Simone Caiello
5
Maria Laura Carranza
2,6
Laura Celesti-Grapow
2,7
Sandra Citterio
2,3
Matteo Colleoni
5
Annalena Cogoni
8
Federica Fasano
3
Rodolfo Gentili
2,3
Michele Innangi
2,6
Stefano Martellos
9
Flavio Marzialetti
1,2
Chiara Montagnani
2,3
Andrea Moro
9
Marco Mucciarelli
2,4
Lucia Antonietta Santoianni
1
Nicole Sebesta
4
Maria Consolata Siniscalco
2,4
Angela Stanisci
2,6
Giuseppe Brundu
1,2
1
Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39/a, Sassari, Sassari - 07100, Italy
2
National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC), NBFC, Piazza Marina 61, Palermo, Palermo - 90133, Italy
3
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Milano- Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 1, Milan, Milan - 20126, Italy
4
Department of Life Science and Systems Biology, University of Torino, Viale Mattioli 25, Turin, Turin - 10125, Italy
5
Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Milano- Bicocca, Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, Milan, Milan - 20126, Italy
6
EnviXLab - Department of Biosciences and Territory, Molise University, Contrada Fonte Lappone, snc, Pesche, Pesche - 86090, Italy
7
Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University, Piazzale Moro 5, Rome, Rome - 00185, Italy
8
Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Cagliari, Via Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, Cagliari, Cagliari - 09123, Italy
9
Department of Life Sciences, University of Trieste, Via Licio Giorgieri 5, Trieste, Triste - 34127, Italy

This project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Research under NextGeneration EU and PON-AIM 2014-2020 DM1062, aims to design an integrated framework for assessing the invasive alien plant risks in Italian protected areas (PAs). The framework supports conservation efforts and prioritizes vulnerable habitats by evaluating species’ likelihood of introduction, establishment potential, and impacts on biodiversity and improve prioritization of most species. The species’ likelihood of introduction is estimated based on occurrence density within PAs, buffer zones, and broader Italian and European (e.g., Mediterranean) regions. For species not yet present in Italy, their potential introduction pathways are analyzed. Establishment potential is determined by evaluating habitat suitability as a proxy of the likelihood of persistence within PAs, buffer zones, and the broader Italy. Through species distribution models, we spatially express the likelihood of alien plants establishment. We consider the suitability of alien plants in each habitat in relation to their conservation value as an indicator of potential impact on biodiversity. Such impacts are quantified within PAs, buffer zones, and the broader Italian landscape. Habitat susceptibility to be invaded and biodiversity value assignment are aided by expert knowledge. This structured approach provides a comprehensive framework for quantifying invasion risk and will help prioritize the most threatened habitats in PAs based on the specific interactions between the PAs and the threat posed by each invasive alien plant. The assessment integrates expert knowledge, current and projected climatic suitability, and an ecosystem vulnerability indicator derived from habitat and species diversity data.

Ecologia del Paesaggio ed analisi spaziale degli ecosistemi
Copyright © 2026 S.IT.E. - Italian Society of Ecology
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