Coastal lagoons provide many ecosystem goods and societal benefits to humanity, but their ability to pursue the provision of ecosystem services (ESs) under changing climate is under threat. Among these services, food provisioning from small-scale fisheries and aquaculture is essential for the subsistence and economy of local communities. While several frameworks have guided research for assessment of climate vulnerability (CV) of fish species, ecosystems, and human communities across multiple scales, significant challenges remain. 

We assessed the CV of food provisioning ES in fifteen Sardinian coastal lagoons, considering either species (SV) or habitat vulnerability (HV). HV was assessed considering Biological Quality Elements, the presence/impact of invasive alien species, and the lagoon susceptibility to warm temperatures (using a water exchange capacity index). The SV metric was based on the unweighted means of species-specific biological traits (0.33; lifespan, habitat specificity, temperature specificity) and site-specific indicators (0.67; Thermal Safety Margin-TSM and stock status via CMSY++). The total SV was obtained as the sum of each SV weighted by its relative importance in the ESs biophysical flow. The CV of food provisioning ESs was obtained as the unweighted mean of SVs and HVs. 

The Nora and Tortolì lagoons showed the highest TSM scores, suggesting they may represent potential thermal stress hotspots. Stock assessment results revealed considerable spatial variability in stock conditions across sites and species. The highest HV score occurred in S’Ena Arrubia (0.92), and Cabras (0.71), while San Giovanni (0.25) and Avalè su Petrosu (0.27) lagoons showed lower scores, suggesting they hold relatively healthier environmental conditions. The CV of the food provisioning ESs across Sardinian lagoons ranged from moderate-low (0.33) up to moderate-high (0.64). We anticipate that integrating our findings with social vulnerability and climate hazard/exposure data will support the formulation of targeted management priorities.