Analysis of the relationships between NDVI, LST, and land use: comparison between urban and forest areas
Urban expansion and the increase of impervious surfaces (Parvar and Salmanmahinyal, 2024; Zhou et al., 2025) have affected contiguous forest landscapes (Guo et al., 2025). Cities are the most compromised, and urban temperatures have been characterized by a strong increase (Hwang et al., 2025; Fetene, 2025). Afforestation and reforestation in urban green areas are crucial strategies in urban settings (Fahrudin et al., 2024). In this context, this study aims to compare an urban area in southern Italy with the forested area near a natural park. The analysis involves data collected from 2006 to 2022 using Google Earth Engine in both contexts, focusing on 1) the change of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and LST (Land Surface Temperature) from 2006 to 2022, and 2) to identify the correlation between NDVI and LST in 2022. The results of the spectral indices indicate a functional vulnerability, both in their capacity to provide supporting (primary productivity) and regulating (temperature regulation) ecosystem services. In particular, NDVI decreases over time in both contexts. The trend is more pronounced in the urban area, with NDVI values dropping below 0.3, corresponding to significantly higher land temperatures, more than in the forest area. In the forest area, NDVI and LST show a strong correlation. In the urban area, where the green areas represent only 0.62%, NDVI values are below the vegetation functionality threshold (0.5), while LST reaches 45°C in summer. The creation of a buffer zone of green areas around the city and the establishment of a network with the natural park can help balance land take with land cover capable of providing supporting ecosystem services. At the same time, increasing green areas can mitigate climate change on a local scale by improving local temperature regulation.